Four years after the August 2008 armed aggression of Georgia against South Ossetia the situation in the region is complex and characterized by the Georgian leadership intention to carry out large-scale provocations. Despite the impact of August 2008 Georgian authorities leave no revanchist sentiments.
There is a buildup of Georgian military presence including armored vehicles and multiple rocket launchers in the territory of Georgia adjacent to the border of South Ossetia and belonging to the responsibility zone of EU military observers. The fortifications are newly built and warehouses for storage of weapons are formed almost at all border communities. Activation of the Georgian intelligence groups is observed. The transfer of armed police posts several hundred meters closer to the border with South Ossetia as it happened in Zardiantkari is noted.
The fact that Georgian leadership deliberately escalates the situation to distract its own people from socio-political problems of Georgia before the forthcoming elections causes suspicion. In order to strengthen its home-policy position before the parliamentary elections Georgian leadership reinforces a media campaign spinning the myth of the Russian threat. It is quite possible that evaluating the existing pre-election situation President Saakashvili is going to create the conditions for cancellation of Parliamentary elections and the introduction of emergency controlling.
Instead of real help official Tbilisi steadily promises its people to return the allegedly occupied territories. On the eve of the fourth anniversary of the August aggression Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili arrived in the Georgian village on the border with South Ossetia and promised to its residents: "We will unite our country and get back our land by any means."
Such actions can only be viewed as provocative fraught with new destabilization.
Tskhinval, September 20, 2012